Authors
David H Fleisher, Bruno Condori, Roberto Quiroz, Ashok Alva, Senthold Asseng, Carolina Barreda, Marco Bindi, Kenneth J Boote, Roberto Ferrise, Angelinus C Franke, Panamanna M Govindakrishnan, Dieudonne Harahagazwe, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Soora Naresh Kumar, Paolo Merante, Claas Nendel, Jorgen E Olesen, Phillip S Parker, Dirk Raes, Rubi Raymundo, Alex C Ruane, Claudio Stockle, Iwan Supit, Eline Vanuytrecht, Joost Wolf, Prem Woli
Publication date
2017/3
Journal
Global change biology
Volume
23
Issue
3
Pages
1258-1281
Description
A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low‐input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)‐ and high‐input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low‐ vs. high‐input sites, with larger differences …
Total citations
20172018201920202021202220232024152120241815128
Scholar articles
DH Fleisher, B Condori, R Quiroz, A Alva, S Asseng… - Global change biology, 2017