Authors
Katherine Calvin, James Edmonds, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Leon Clarke, Son H Kim, Page Kyle, Steven J Smith, Allison Thomson, Marshall Wise
Publication date
2009/12/1
Journal
Energy Economics
Volume
31
Pages
S107-S120
Publisher
North-Holland
Description
The EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios explores a rich suite of potential future worlds in which climate change is limited to a variety of alternative radiative forcing levels. This paper focuses primarily on the requirements to limit radiative forcing from Kyoto gases to 2.6 W/m2. Given that we estimate year 2005 radiative forcing to be 2.4 W/m2, the 2.6 W/m2 limit creates a non-trivial constraint. Allowing radiative forcing to exceed the long-term target level provides greater latitude in achieving the goal, but implies major changes to both global energy and land-use systems in the near term as well as the long term. In addition, delay on the part of major emitting parties creates potential “leakage” in both energy and land use. We estimate the challenging near-term and long-term deployment of new wind power, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage associated with the 2.6 W/m2 limit.
Total citations
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Scholar articles
K Calvin, J Edmonds, B Bond-Lamberty, L Clarke… - Energy Economics, 2009