View article

This paper investigates forecasts of US inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commodity prices. These forecasts can however be improved upon using a generalized Phillips curve based on measures of real aggregate activity other than unemployment, especially a new index of aggregate activity based on 168 economic indicators.