Authors
James H Stock, Mark W Watson
Publication date
1988/12/1
Journal
Journal of the American statistical Association
Volume
83
Issue
404
Pages
1097-1107
Publisher
Taylor & Francis Group
Description
Cointegrated multiple time series share at least one common trend. Two tests are developed for the number of common stochastic trends (i.e., for the order of cointegration) in a multiple time series with and without drift. Both tests involve the roots of the ordinary least squares coefficient matrix obtained by regressing the series onto its first lag. Critical values for the tests are tabulated, and their power is examined in a Monte Carlo study. Economic time series are often modeled as having a unit root in their autoregressive representation, or (equivalently) as containing a stochastic trend. But both casual observation and economic theory suggest that many series might contain the same stochastic trends so that they are cointegrated. If each of n series is integrated of order 1 but can be jointly characterized by k > n stochastic trends, then the vector representation of these series has k unit roots and nk distinct stationary …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
JH Stock, MW Watson - Journal of the American statistical Association, 1988