Authors
James H Stock, Mark W Watson
Publication date
2001/11/1
Journal
Journal of Economic perspectives
Volume
15
Issue
4
Pages
101-115
Publisher
American Economic Association
Description
This paper critically reviews the use of vector autoregressions (VARs) for four tasks: data description, forecasting, structural inference, and policy analysis. The paper begins with a review of VAR analysis, highlighting the differences between reduced-form VARs, recursive VARs and structural VARs. A three variable VAR that includes the unemployment rate, price inflation and the short term interest rate is used to show how VAR methods are used for the four tasks. The paper concludes that VARs have proven to be powerful and reliable tools for data description and forecasting, but have been less useful for structural inference and policy analysis.
Total citations
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Scholar articles
JH Stock, MW Watson - Journal of Economic perspectives, 2001