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Early warning systems are essential tool for humanitarian preparedness and response. The diversity of inputs required, ranging from agricultural production estimates to market price variability and weather forecasts, means that interpreting food security signals is not an easy task. Each of these inputs is fraught with uncertainty which analysts need to assess when making projections about future food security. Understanding the accuracy rates of early warning systems is therefore of paramount importance to enable improvements to food security prediction. However, to date, limited analyses of early warning accuracy have been conducted. Here we analyze Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) early warning data for the Greater Horn of Africa and show that, despite accuracy in projections, there remain important challenges for food security projections. The two major sources of uncertainty are …