Authors
Dmitry Yumashev, Chris Hope, Kevin Schaefer, Kathrin Riemann-Campe, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Elchin Jafarov, Eleanor J Burke, Paul J Young, Yasin Elshorbany, Gail Whiteman
Publication date
2019/4/23
Journal
Nature communications
Volume
10
Issue
1
Pages
1-11
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Description
Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change:+ 4.0%($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 C scenario,+ 5.5%($33.8 trillion) under the 2 C scenario, and+ 4.8%($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the …
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