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Seagrasses are threatened by human activity in many locations around the world. Their decline is often characterized by sudden ecosystem collapse from a vegetated to a bare state. In the 1930s, such a dramatic event happened in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Before the shift, large seagrass beds (Zostera marina) were present in this area. After the construction of a large dam and an incidence of the “wasting disease” in the early 1930s, these meadows became virtually extinct and never recovered despite restoration attempts. We investigated whether this shift could be explained as a critical transition between alternative stable states, and whether the lack of recovery could be due to the high resilience of the new turbid state. We analyzed the depth distribution of the historical meadows, a long-term dataset of key factors determining turbidity and a minimal model based on these data. Results …