Authors
Olaf J De Groot, Carlos Bozzoli, Anousheh Alamir, Tilman Brück
Publication date
2022/3
Journal
Journal of Peace Research
Volume
59
Issue
2
Pages
259-276
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Description
Calculating the consequences of global public bads such as climate change or pandemics helps uncover the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. As violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, whether directly or indirectly, this article sets out to estimate its global macro-economic repercussions. Using a novel methodology that accounts for multiple dimensions of war, the article finds that, in the absence of violent conflict since 1970, the level of global GDP in 2014 would have been, on average, 12% higher. When disaggregating these results by conflict type, civil conflicts are estimated to have been the costliest by far. Income growth is found to be altered up to four years following the end of a conflict, although the direction of this relationship depends on the intensity and type of conflict. Countries also suffer significantly from fighting in neighbouring countries, thereby showing the …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
OJ De Groot, C Bozzoli, A Alamir, T Brück - Journal of Peace Research, 2022
OJ De Groot, C Bozzoli, T Brück - Households in Conflict Network Working Paper, 2015