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Relationships between surface sediment diatom assemblages and measured environmental variables from 77 lakes in the central Canadian arctic treeline region were examined using multivariate statistical methods. Lakes were distributed across the arctic treeline from boreal forest to arctic tundra ecozones, along steep climatic and environmental gradients. Forward selection in canonical correspondence analysis determined that dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total nitrogen (TN), lake surface area, silica, lake‐water depth, and iron explained significant portions of diatom species variation. Weighted‐averaging (WA) regression and calibration techniques were used to develop inference models for DIC, DOC, and TN from the estimated optima of the diatom taxa to these environmental variables. Simple WA models with classical deshrinking produced models with the strongest …