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Over the next 10 years, Scottish tourism is expected to grow by 50%. One of the keys to that growth is transport which is a sector that is dependent upon oil. This paper considers oil and the global economy and its relationship to Scottish tourism. Consideration is given to the key variables such as oil forecasts, security of supply, cost of production, world demand, alternative forms of energy including renewables and nuclear power. The combination of these facts means that high oil prices are here to stay. Two scenarios are constructed called Energy Inflation and Paying for Climate Change. These were developed using a triangulation of methods including the use of systems thinking models to construct the scenarios to computable general equilibrium modelling to analyse the impact of oil and energy price rises on Scottish tourism. The Energy Inflation scenario presumes mass belief in the plenitude of available oil …