Authors
Philippe Andrade, Eric Ghysels, Julien Idier
Publication date
2012/11/1
Journal
Available at SSRN 2185958
Description
We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@ R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@ R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes. Not only the extent but also the asymmetry of inflation risks evolve over time. Moreover, changes in this asymmetry have an impact on future inflation realizations as well as on the current interest rate central banks target.
Total citations
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Scholar articles
P Andrade, E Ghysels, J Idier - Available at SSRN 2185958, 2012