Authors
Jairos Rurinda, Mark T van Wijk, Paul Mapfumo, Katrien Descheemaeker, Iwan Supit, Ken E Giller
Publication date
2015/12
Journal
Global change biology
Volume
21
Issue
12
Pages
4588-4601
Description
There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options – planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice – using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near‐ and long‐term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid‐December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010–2039 and 2040–2069 and by 20% for 2070–2099 …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
J Rurinda, MT van Wijk, P Mapfumo, K Descheemaeker… - Global change biology, 2015