Authors
Davide Pettenuzzo, Francesco Ravazzolo
Publication date
2016/11
Journal
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Volume
31
Issue
7
Pages
1312-1332
Description
We propose a density combination approach featuring combination weights that depend on the past forecast performance of the individual models entering the combination through a utility‐based objective function. We apply this model combination scheme to forecast stock returns, both at the aggregate level and by industry, and investigate its forecasting performance relative to a host of existing combination methods, both within the class of linear and time‐varying coefficients, stochastic volatility models. Overall, we find that our combination scheme produces markedly more accurate predictions than the existing alternatives, both in terms of statistical and economic measures of out‐of‐sample predictability. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Total citations
20152016201720182019202020212022202320242511109138994
Scholar articles