Authors
Patrick Mathiesen, Jan Kleissl
Publication date
2011/5/1
Journal
Solar Energy
Volume
85
Issue
5
Pages
967-977
Publisher
Pergamon
Description
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally the most accurate tools for forecasting solar irradiation several hours in advance. This study validates the North American Model (NAM), Global Forecast System (GFS), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts for the continental United States (CONUS) using SURFRAD ground measurement data. Persistence and clear sky forecasts are also evaluated. For measured clear conditions all NWP models are biased by less than 50Wm−2. For cloudy conditions near solar noon these biases can exceed 200Wm−2. In general, the NWP models (especially GFS and NAM) are biased towards forecasting clear conditions resulting in large, positive biases. Mean bias errors (MBE) are obtained for each NWP model as a function of solar zenith angle and forecast clear sky index, kt, to derive a …
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