Authors
Raymond W Arritt, Christopher J Anderson, Eugene S Takle, Zaitao Pan, William J Gutowski Jr, Francis O Otieno, Renato da Silva, Daniel Caya, Jens H Christensen, Daniel Lüthi, Miguel A Gaertner, Clemente Gallardo, Song-You Hong, Colin Jones, HMH Juang, JJ Katzfey, William M Lapenta, René Laprise, Jay W Larson, Glen E Liston, John L McGregor, Roger A Pielke Sr, John O Roads, John A Taylor
Description
Limits on computational resources usually have constrained nested regional climate model (RCM) studies to a single realization using a single model. In contrast, experience with both short-range limitedarea predictions and medium to longer-term global modeling has shown the utility of ensemble methods (eg, Brooks et al. 1995; Buizza et al. 1999; Atger 1999). Thus, it is appropriate to explore the utility of ensemble simulations within the context of RCM applications.
Appropriate methods for constructing RCM ensembles have not been established. The problem is made more complicated because the tendency for solutions to diverge in seasonal limited-area forecast models or nested regional climate models differs both from short-term limited-area models and from global seasonal models. Short-term applications of limitedarea models are strongly dependent on initial conditions, but" memory" for initial conditions …
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