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(Meinshausen et al, 2009). Such emissions reduction paths are many times greater in scale than precedents of emission reductions associated with economic recessions or technological switches of the past (such as France's nuclear expansion or the UK'sdash for gas')(Anderson and Bows, 2008). With higher levels of cumulative emissions there is a significant likelihood of mean warming of 48C or more above preindustrial levels, with serious implications in terms of impacts (Parry et al, 2009). This is part of the new realism about climate change, which has yet to pervade thinking about adaptation.

These realities complicate the temporal challenge of adaptation. It may be within the capacity of human ingenuity to adapt to 28C of warming above preindustrial levels. If emissions slow so that climate stabilises at this level, the pace of change may be such that adaptation can, by and large, be successful. This is effectively …