Authors
Kiran K Kumar, Chiranjit Mukhopadyay
Publication date
2002
Journal
NSE, India Research paper, Source: www. nseindia. com
Description
This paper empirically investigates the short run dynamic linkages between NSE Nifty in India and NASDAQ Composite in US during the recent 1999-2001 period using intradaily data, which determine the daytime and overnight returns. The study carries out a comprehensive analysis from correlation to Granger causality and then to application of GARCH models to examine the co movement and volatility transmission between US and Indian stock markets. Specifically, the study employs a two stage GARCH model and an ARMA-GARCH model to capture the mechanism by which NASDAQ Composite daytime returns and volatility have an impact on not only the mean but also on the conditional volatility of Nifty overnight returns. It is found that the simple ARMAGARCH model performs better than the more complex Two-stage GARCH model, described in the literature. The main findings of this study are as follows: First, the granger causality results indicate unidirectional granger causality running from the US stock markets (both NASDAQ Composite and S & P 500 indices) to the Indian stock market, NSE Nifty index. Second, the previous daytime returns of both NASDAQ Composite and NSE Nifty have significant impact on the NSE Nifty overnight returns. However, the volatility spillover effects are significant only from NASDAQ Composite implying that the conditional volatility of Nifty overnight returns is imported from US. We found that on an average the effect of NASDAQ daytime return volatility shocks on Nifty overnight return volatility is 9.5% and that of Nifty daytime return is a mere 0.5%. In out of sample forecasts, however, we found that by …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
KK Kumar, C Mukhopadyay - NSE, India Research paper, Source: www. nseindia …, 2002