Authors
Maria K Janowiak, Anthony W D'Amato, Christopher W Swanston, Louis Iverson, Frank R Thompson, William D Dijak, Stephen Matthews, Matthew P Peters, Anantha Prasad, Jacob S Fraser, Leslie A Brandt, Patricia Butler-Leopold, Stephen D Handler, P Danielle Shannon, Diane Burbank, John Campbell, Charles Cogbill, Matthew J Duveneck, Marla R Emery, Nicholas Fisichelli, Jane Foster, Jennifer Hushaw, Laura Kenefic, Amanda Mahaffey, Toni Lyn Morelli, Nicholas J Reo, Paul G Schaberg, K Rogers Simmons, Aaron Weiskittel, Sandy Wilmot, David Hollinger, Erin Lane, Lindsey Rustad, Pamela H Templer
Publication date
2018
Journal
Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-173. Newtown Square, PA: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 234 p.
Volume
173
Pages
1-234
Description
Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and natural resource professionals familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show that the mean annual temperature has increased across the region by 2.4 F, with even greater warming during winter. Precipitation patterns also changed during this time, with a slight trend toward greater annual precipitation and a substantial increase in extreme precipitation events. Projected climate trends using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 3 to 8 F for the assessment area by 2100. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in fall and winter precipitation, and spring and summer precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these …
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