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The uncertainty structure of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is largely unknown at fine spatiotemporal scales near the radar measurement scale. By using the WSR‐88D radar network and gauge data sets across the conterminous US, an investigation of this subject has been carried out within the framework of the NOAA/NSSL ground radar‐based Multi‐Radar Multi‐Sensor (MRMS) QPE system. A new method is proposed and called PRORATE for probabilistic QPE using radar observations of rate and typology estimates. Probability distributions of precipitation rates are computed instead of deterministic values using a model quantifying the relation between radar reflectivity and the corresponding “true” precipitation. The model acknowledges the uncertainty arising from many factors operative at the radar measurement scale and from the correction algorithm. Ensembles of reflectivity‐to‐precipitation …