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This paper addresses the problem of distortion modeling for video transmission over burst-loss channels characterized by a finite-state Markov chain. Based on a detailed analysis of the error propagation and the bursty losses, a distortion trellis model is proposed, enabling us to estimate at the both the frame level and sequence level the expected mean-square error (MSE) distortion caused by Markov-model burst packet losses. The model takes into account the temporal dependencies induced by both the motion-compensated coding scheme and the Markov-model channel losses. The model is applicable to most block-based motion-compensated encoders, and most Markov-model lossy channels as long as the loss pattern probabilities for that channel is computable. Based on the study of the decaying behavior of the error propagation, a sliding window algorithm is developed to perform the MSE estimation with …