Authors
Niel Hens, Laurence Calatayud, Satu Kurkela, Teele Tamme, Jacco Wallinga
Publication date
2012/8/1
Journal
American journal of epidemiology
Volume
176
Issue
3
Pages
196-203
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Description
The rapid spread of the new influenza virus A(H1N1)v in young age groups in 2009 has been partly attributed to a high transmission intensity in schools. However, detailed characterization of the spread of influenza in school populations has been difficult to obtain, simply because it is very hard to identify who infected whom in a large outbreak. Data collected in large outbreak investigations typically miss many transmission events, and some reported transmission events will be incorrect. Here the authors present robust likelihood-based methods that can be used to analyze outbreak data while explicitly accounting for both missing data and erroneous data. They apply this method to a school-based outbreak of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v that occurred in London, United Kingdom, in April 2009. The authors show that the generation interval in this school-based population was 2.20 days and that the …
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