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Prescribed opioids are a mainstay pain treatment after traumatic injury, but a subgroup of patients may be at risk for continued opioid use. We evaluated the predictive utility of a traditional screening tool, the Opioid Risk Tool (ORT), and two other measures: average in-hospital milligram morphine equivalents (MME) per day and an assessment of opioid demand in predicting pain outcomes. Assessments of pain-related outcomes (pain intensity, interference, injury-related stress, and need for additional pain treatment) were administered at 2 weeks and 12 months post-discharge in a sample of 34 patients hospitalized for traumatic injury. Bayesian linear models were used to evaluate changes in responses over time as a function of predictors. High-risk ORT, higher MME per day, and greater opioid demand predicted less change in outcomes over time. This report provides first evidence that malleable factors of …