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The purpose of this study was to characterize the soil organic carbon dynamics associated with four land-uses (cropland, grassland, shrubland, and forestland) in the upper Blue Nile Basin of the Ethiopian Highlands. We collected diverse biophysical data to allow spatial variability of soil organic carbon and factors contributing to this variation to be determined statistically, and used well established simulation models to interpret the data, predict long-term carbon dynamics and determine the potential for improvements in soil quality and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. The spatial variation in soil organic carbon in the 0–20 cm soil depth was significant across study areas (P < 0.01, 21.6 g kg⁻¹–37.8 g kg⁻¹), and between land-uses (P < 0.05, 27.9 g kg⁻¹ in cropland and 43.0 g kg⁻¹ soil in forestland). In a multiple linear regression model, among the 11 explanatory variables used, four (total nitrogen, shrubs …