Authors
Richard Seager, Robert Burgman, Yochanan Kushnir, Amy Clement, Ed Cook, Naomi Naik, Jennifer Miller
Publication date
2008/12/1
Journal
Journal of Climate
Volume
21
Issue
23
Pages
6175-6190
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Description
The possible role that tropical Pacific SSTs played in driving the megadroughts over North America during the medieval period is addressed. Fossil coral records from the Palmyra Atoll are used to derive tropical Pacific SSTs for the period from ad 1320 to ad 1462 and show overall colder conditions as well as extended multidecadal La Niña–like states. The reconstructed SSTs are used to force a 16-member ensemble of atmosphere GCM simulations, each with different initial conditions, with the atmosphere coupled to a mixed layer ocean outside of the tropical Pacific. Model results are verified against North American tree ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. A singular value decomposition analysis is performed using the soil moisture anomaly simulated by another 16-member ensemble of simulations forced by global observed SSTs for 1856–2004 and tree ring reconstructions of the Palmer …
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