Authors
Anne Marthe van der Bles, Sander van der Linden, Alexandra LJ Freeman, James Mitchell, Ana B Galvao, Lisa Zaval, David J Spiegelhalter
Publication date
2019/5/8
Journal
Royal Society Open Science
Volume
6
Issue
5
Pages
181870
Publisher
The Royal Society
Description
Uncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge, and yet in an era of contested expertise, many shy away from openly communicating their uncertainty about what they know, fearful of their audience's reaction. But what effect does communication of such epistemic uncertainty have? Empirical research is widely scattered across many disciplines. This interdisciplinary review structures and summarizes current practice and research across domains, combining a statistical and psychological perspective. This informs a framework for uncertainty communication in which we identify three objects of uncertainty—facts, numbers and science—and two levels of uncertainty: direct and indirect. An examination of current practices provides a scale of nine expressions of direct uncertainty. We discuss attempts to codify indirect uncertainty in terms of quality of the underlying evidence. We review the limited literature about the effects …
Total citations
201920202021202220232024165583816852
Scholar articles
AM Van Der Bles, S Van Der Linden, ALJ Freeman… - Royal Society open science, 2019