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Irrigated agriculture in California is one of the largest contributors of agricultural products to the US, and holds particularly important markets for fruits, nuts and vegetables. Kern county, located in the southern Central Valley, is among the most significant agricultural regions by value nationwide. Yet the area suffers from chronic groundwater overdraft and water demand hardening due to a rapid increase in perennial crop acreage. We present a hydro-economic model to analyze agricultural production and water use in Kern County. The model employs a positive mathematical programming approach to predict cropping decisions such that net returns to land and management are maximized. The calibration period for land and water use is 1998-2015, which includes a diverse range of hydrologic conditions. The model also integrates a monthly water balance module based on the Integrated Water Flow Model …