Authors
Benjamin L Rice, Akshaya Annapragada, Rachel E Baker, Marjolein Bruijning, Winfred Dotse-Gborgbortsi, Keitly Mensah, Ian F Miller, Nkengafac Villyen Motaze, Antso Raherinandrasana, Malavika Rajeev, Julio Rakotonirina, Tanjona Ramiadantsoa, Fidisoa Rasambainarivo, Weiyu Yu, Bryan T Grenfell, Andrew J Tatem, C Jessica E Metcalf
Publication date
2021/3
Journal
Nature Medicine
Volume
27
Issue
3
Pages
447-453
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group US
Description
A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (for example, warmer environments, younger populations, –) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis. We synthesized factors hypothesized to drive the pace and burden of this pandemic in SSA during the period from 25 February to 20 December 2020, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare capacity, intervention efforts and human mobility dimensions. Large diversity in the probable drivers indicates a need for caution in interpreting analyses that aggregate data across low- and middle-income settings. Our simulation shows that climatic variation between SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories; however, heterogeneity in connectivity, although rarely considered, is likely …
Total citations
2020202120222023202424131149
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