Authors
Rachel E Baker, Sang Woo Park, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A Vecchi, C Jessica E Metcalf, Bryan T Grenfell
Publication date
2020/12/1
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume
117
Issue
48
Pages
30547-30553
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Description
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may …
Total citations
20202021202220232024411313711961
Scholar articles
RE Baker, SW Park, W Yang, GA Vecchi, CJE Metcalf… - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020