Authors
Samantha Bents, Cécile Viboud, Bryan Grenfell, Alexandra Hogan, Stefano Tempia, Anne von Gottberg, Jocelyn Moyes, Sibongile Walaza, Cheryl Cohen, Rachel Baker
Publication date
2022/3/13
Journal
medRxiv
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Preprints
Description
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to mitigating transmission of SARS-CoV-2, these public health measures have also functioned in slowing the spread of other endemic respiratory pathogens. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates low circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020–2021 Southern Hemisphere winter seasons. Here we fit age-structured epidemiological models to national surveillance data to predict the 2022 RSV outbreak following two suppressed seasons. We project a 32% increase in the peak number of monthly hospitalizations among infants≤ 2 years, with older infants (6–23 month olds) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. Our results suggest that hospital system readiness should be …
Total citations
202220232024152