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The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed massive public health burdens and economic costs, with more than 220 million confirmed cases and more than 4.5 million deaths globally so far. In some countries, the rapid deployment of safe and effective vaccines has reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. However, many regions across the world have little access to doses, and infections are resurging. Furthermore, sustained transmission has led to the emergence of novel variants of the causative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus with increased transmissibility, and against which vaccines may be less effective. Thus, understanding the effects of vaccine nationalism and allocation on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2 is critical.

We extend recent models of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics to consider the number of cases and potential for viral …