Authors
Caroline E Wagner, Milad Hooshyar, Rachel E Baker, Wenchang Yang, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Gabriel Vecchi, C Jessica E Metcalf, Amilcare Porporato, Bryan T Grenfell
Publication date
2020/6/24
Journal
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume
17
Issue
167
Pages
20200075
Publisher
The Royal Society
Description
The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically driven disease transmission framework for dengue virus using spatially resolved temperature and precipitation data as well as the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. From this framework, we first demonstrate that the distinct climatological patterns encountered across the island play an important role in establishing the typical yearly temporal dynamics of dengue, but alone are unable to account for the epidemic case numbers observed in Sri Lanka during 2017. Using a simplified two-strain SIR model, we demonstrate that the re-introduction of a dengue virus serotype that had been largely absent from the …
Total citations
2020202120222023202432653
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