View article

Africa is in the midst of an urban transition and getting this transition right is critical. The continent’s urban population is growing at about 3.3 per cent a year, the combined outcome of an overall population growth rate of 2.2 per cent a year and an urbanization rate of 1.1 per cent a year. Over the next ten years, Africa’s urban population is projected to increase by over 150 million. Economic difficulties may reduce rural–urban migration, but Africa’s towns and cities are not ready to accommodate anything like this many new residents.

It is tempting for governments to respond to this challenge by trying to discourage rural–urban migration. Surveys indicate that government officials are increasingly concerned with ‘over-urbanization’, and a growing number of policies are being implemented to reduce rural–urban migration. There is no evidence of such policies succeeding, however, and plenty of evidence of human suffering when there are harsh restrictions on rural–urban migration. Poor groups can also suffer from the neglect of growing urban areas: neglect often at least implicitly justified on the grounds that the population in these areas ought not to be growing, and that the provision of infrastructure and services will simply encourage more in-migration from rural areas or neighbouring countries. Even responding to urban growth as it occurs typically means too little, too late, and in the wrong place.