Authors
Chi Truong, Matteo Malavasi, Han Li, Stefan Trück, Pavel V Shevchenko
Publication date
2024/5/21
Journal
Annals of Operations Research
Pages
1-23
Publisher
Springer US
Description
Assessing climate risk and its potential impacts on our cities and economies is of fundamental importance. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and storm surges can lead to catastrophic damages. We propose a flexible approach based on real options analysis and extreme value theory, which enables the selection of optimal adaptation pathways for a portfolio of climate adaptation projects. We model the severity of extreme sea level events using the block maxima approach from extreme value theory, and then develop a real options framework, factoring in climate change, sea level rise uncertainty, and the growth in asset exposure. We then apply the proposed framework to a real-world problem, considering sea level data as well as different adaptation investment options for New York City. Our research can assist governments and policy makers in taking informed decisions about optimal …
Scholar articles
C Truong, M Malavasi, H Li, S Trück, PV Shevchenko - Annals of Operations Research, 2024