Authors
Katja Hanewald, Han Li, Adam Wenqiang Shao
Publication date
2019/3
Journal
Annals of Actuarial Science
Volume
13
Issue
1
Pages
145–165
Description
Rapid population ageing in China has urged the need to understand health transitions of older Chinese to assist the development of social security programmes and financial products aimed at funding long-term care. In this paper, we develop a new flexible approach to modelling health transitions in a multi-state Markov model that allows for age effects, time trends and age-time interactions. The model is implemented in the generalised linear modelling framework. We apply the model to evaluate health transitions of Chinese elderly using individual-level panel data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey for the period 1998–2012. Our results confirm that time trends and age–time interactions are important factors explaining health transitions in addition to the more commonly used age effects. We document that differences in disability and mortality rates continue to persist between urban and rural …
Total citations
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