Authors
Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel J Candes, Aaditya Ramdas, Ryan J Tibshirani
Publication date
2021/6
Journal
Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA
Volume
10
Issue
2
Pages
455-482
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Description
We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal coverage guarantees, where predictive coverage holds on average over all possible test points, but this is not sufficient for many practical applications where we would like to know that our predictions are valid for a given individual, not merely on average over a population. On the other hand, exact conditional inference guarantees are known to be impossible without imposing assumptions on the underlying distribution. In this work, we aim to explore the space in between these two and examine what types of relaxations of the conditional coverage property would alleviate some of the practical concerns with marginal coverage guarantees while still being possible to achieve in a …
Total citations
202020212022202320241432405672
Scholar articles
R Foygel Barber, EJ Candes, A Ramdas, RJ Tibshirani - Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA, 2021