View article

Objectives.

Optimistic predictions for the Healthy People 2010 goals of eliminating racial/ethnic disparities in health have been made based on absolute improvements in life expectancy and mortality. This study sought to determine whether there is evidence of relative improvement (a more valid measure of inequality) in life expectancy and mortality, and whether such improvement, if demonstrated, predicts future success in eliminating disparities.

Methods.

Historical data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Census Bureau were used to predict future trends in relative mortality and life expectancy, employing an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Excess mortality and time lags in mortality and life expectancy for blacks relative to whites were also estimated.

Results.

Based on data for 1945 to 1999, forecasts for relative black: white age-adjusted, all-cause mortality and white …