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Rural development in the Sudano‐Sahelian region during the past 20 years and future scenarios of change were studied using meta‐analysis of case studies, household interviews and scenario assessment. Households have generally increased their wealth, especially when they diversify out of agriculture. Rain‐fed crop cultivation is more sensitive to climate factors than livestock, but generally climate factors play a limited direct role for local land use and livelihood strategies. The agricultural sector needs strong support to remain important in the region and off‐farm work and migration are likely to continue to increase, which may decrease vulnerability. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society