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Objectives

The aim of this study is to analyse the recent history of forest fires in Castilla-La Mancha and to ascertain the current fire weather risk in the region and its future variation in different climate-change scenarios. The first step in this process was to analyse the trend in the number of fires and total burnt area in recent decades, as well as the main causes of the fires in the region. A forecast was then made of how drought indices and fire weather risk will vary in the future, using different circulation models and emissions scenarios (IPCC scenarios A2 and B2) in different seasonal periods throughout this twenty first century.