Authors
Malte Meinshausen, Steven J Smith, Katherine Calvin, John S Daniel, Mikiko LT Kainuma, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Kazuhiko Matsumoto, Stephen A Montzka, Sarah CB Raper, Keywan Riahi, AGJMV Thomson, GJM Velders, DP P van Vuuren
Publication date
2011/11
Journal
Climatic change
Volume
109
Pages
213-241
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Description
We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750–2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005–2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model …
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