Authors
Timothy Sauer, Tyrus Berry, Donald Ebeigbe, Michael M Norton, Andrew J Whalen, Steven J Schiff
Publication date
2021
Journal
SIAM journal on control and optimization
Volume
60
Issue
2
Pages
S27-S48
Publisher
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Description
It is known that the parameters in the deterministic and stochastic SEIR epidemic models are structurally identifiable. For example, from knowledge of the infected population time series during the entire epidemic, the parameters can be successfully estimated. In this article we observe that estimation will fail in practice if only infected case data during the early part of the epidemic (prepeak) is available. This fact can be explained using a well-known phenomenon called dynamical compensation. We use this concept to derive an unidentifiability manifold in the parameter space of SEIR that consists of parameters indistinguishable from early in the epidemic. Thus, identifiability depends on the extent of the system trajectory that is available for observation. Although the existence of the unidentifiability manifold obstructs the ability to exactly determine the parameters, we suggest that it may be useful for …
Total citations
2020202120222023202411695
Scholar articles
T Sauer, T Berry, D Ebeigbe, MM Norton, AJ Whalen… - SIAM journal on control and optimization, 2021