Authors
Caner Hamarat, Erik Pruyt
Publication date
2011/7/31
Conference
2011 Proceedings of PICMET'11: Technology Management in the Energy Smart World (PICMET)
Pages
1-10
Publisher
IEEE
Description
Models are frequently used for decision support in modern day decision making. This approach is referred as model-based decision support and it is mostly-at least implicitly-used for predictive purposes. However, predictions are almost always wrong and can be dramatically misleading for policy making. Another shortcoming related to predictive model use is the lack of proper consideration of deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty refers to the lack of knowledge or agreement related to the correct representation of a system and the evaluation of (model-based) outcomes. This paper proposes to embrace deep uncertainty by using models in an exploratory way in order to improve model-based decision support under deep uncertainty. For this purpose, a new research methodology for analyzing complex and deeply uncertain systems - Exploratory Modeling and Analysis- is combined with System Dynamics modeling to …
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