Authors
Robert S Erikson, Mikhail G Filippov
Publication date
2001/12
Journal
Constitutional Political Economy
Volume
12
Pages
313-331
Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Description
The major premise of this study is that in federal countries voters can balance and moderate national policy by dividing electoral support between different parties in federal and sub-national elections. We compare the non-concurrent federal and provincial elections in Canada to assess the balancing properties of sub-national elections. The balancing hypothesis implies that the federal incumbent party may suffer additional electoral losses in provincial elections. We use several statistical tests - ordinary OLS, “fixed effect” and “unbalanced random effect” cross-section time series - to analyze Canadian electoral data for the period of 1949-1997. All tests sustain that the incumbent party at the federal level loses votes in provincial elections.
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