Autores
F Løvholt, S Fraser, M Salgado-Gálvez, S Lorito, J Selva, F Romano, A Suppasri, E Mas, J Polet, J Behrens, M Canals, GA Papadopoulos, AM Schaefer, N Zamora, S Chacon, N Wood, I Aguirre-Ayerbe, I Aniel-Quiroga Zorilla, M Gonzalez Rodriguez, D Johnson, G Leonard, R Paris, S Guillas, F Dias, MA Baptista
Fecha de publicación
2019/6
Revista
Contributing paper to GAR
Editor
University of Hamburg
Descripción
This paper provides a timely review of progress and ongoing research needs in tsunami hazard and risk science since the most recent major event, the Tohoku tsunami in 2011. The tsunami community has made significant progress in understanding tsunami hazard from seismic sources. However, this is only part of the inputs needed to effectively manage tsunami risk, which should be understood more holistically, including non-seismic sources, vulnerability in different dimensions and the overall societal effects, in addition to its interaction with other hazards and cascading effects. Moreover, higher standards need to be achieved as far as the management of subjective choices and uncertainty quantification, which largely govern our basis for tsunami risk decision making. Large tsunamis occur with relatively low frequency, if compared for instance with the ones of other perils such as hurricanes, floods and landslides, but have potentially high impacts including extreme numbers of casualties, and direct and indirect economic losses. In the last two decades this has been demonstrated, for instance, by the Indian Ocean (2004) and the Tohoku (2011) tsunamis. The scale of these disasters far exceeded the previously perceived risk in these areas. The relative rarity of tsunamis implies in fact a deficit of tsunami observations, which forces hazard and risk analysts to make subjective modelling choices. This in turn makes the uncertainties associated with tsunami risk analysis quite large. One likely reason for the underestimation of tsunami risk is the lack of rigorous, robust and standardized hazard and risk assessment methodologies, and the treatment …
Citas totales
201920202021202220232024238941
Artículos de Google Académico