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In this paper, we describe a Monte Carlo approach for estimating the frequency and character of single event effects based on a combination of physical modeling of discrete radiation events, device simulations to estimate charge transport and collection, and circuit simulations to determine the effect of the collected charge. A mathematical analysis of the procedure reveals it to be closely related to the rectangular parallelepiped (RPP) rate prediction method. The results of these simulations show that event-to-event variation may have a significant impact when predicting the single-event rate in advanced spacecraft electronics. Specific criteria for supplementing established RPP-based single event analysis with Monte Carlo computations are discussed.