Authors
Eric Audsley, Mirek Trnka, Santiago Sabaté, Joan Maspons, Anabel Sanchez, Daniel Sandars, Jan Balek, Kerry Pearn
Publication date
2015/2
Journal
Climatic Change
Volume
128
Pages
215-227
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Description
Studies of climate change impacts on agricultural land use generally consider sets of climates combined with fixed socio-economic scenarios, making it impossible to compare the impact of specific factors within these scenario sets. Analysis of the impact of specific scenario factors is extremely difficult due to prohibitively long run-times of the complex models. This study produces and combines metamodels of crop and forest yields and farm profit, derived from previously developed very complex models, to enable prediction of European land use under any set of climate and socio-economic data. Land use is predicted based on the profitability of the alternatives on every soil within every 10’ grid across the EU. A clustering procedure reduces 23,871 grids with 20+ soils per grid to 6,714 clusters of common soil and climate. Combined these reduce runtime 100 thousand-fold. Profit thresholds define land as …
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