Authors
Jordis S Tradowsky, Sjoukje Y Philip, Frank Kreienkamp, Sarah F Kew, Philip Lorenz, Julie Arrighi, Thomas Bettmann, Steven Caluwaerts, Steven C Chan, Lesley De Cruz, Hylke de Vries, Norbert Demuth, Andrew Ferrone, Erich M Fischer, Hayley J Fowler, Klaus Goergen, Dorothy Heinrich, Yvonne Henrichs, Frank Kaspar, Geert Lenderink, Enno Nilson, Friederike EL Otto, Francesco Ragone, Sonia I Seneviratne, Roop K Singh, Amalie Skålevåg, Piet Termonia, Lisa Thalheimer, Maarten van Aalst, Joris Van den Bergh, Hans Van de Vyver, Stéphane Vannitsem, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Robert Vautard, Demi Vonk, Niko Wanders
Publication date
2023/7
Journal
Climatic Change
Volume
176
Issue
7
Pages
90
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Description
In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. After the event, a hydrological assessment and a probabilistic event attribution analysis of rainfall data were initiated and complemented by discussing the vulnerability and exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as a covariate in a generalised extreme value distribution fitted to observational and model data, exploiting the dependence on GMST to estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Rainfall accumulations in Ahr/Erft and the Belgian Meuse catchment vastly exceeded previous observed records. In regions of that limited size the robust estimation of return values and the detection and attribution of rainfall trends are …
Total citations
Scholar articles
JS Tradowsky, SY Philip, F Kreienkamp, SF Kew… - Climatic Change, 2023