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Externalizing problems, including aggression and conduct problems, are thought to involve impaired attentional capacities. Previous research suggests that the P3 event‐related potential (ERP) component is an index of attentional processing, and diminished P3 amplitudes to infrequent stimuli have been shown to be associated with externalizing problems and attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, the vast majority of this prior work has been cross‐sectional and has not examined young children. The present study is the first investigation of whether within‐individual changes in P3 amplitude predict changes in externalizing problems, providing a stronger test of developmental process.

Participants included a community sample of children (N = 153) followed longitudinally at 30, 36, and 42 months of age. Children completed an oddball task while ERP data were recorded …