Authors
Sadie J Ryan, Amy McNally, Leah R Johnson, Erin A Mordecai, Tal Ben-Horin, Krijn Paaijmans, Kevin D Lafferty
Publication date
2015
Journal
Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases
Volume
15
Issue
12
Pages
817-825
Publisher
Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
Description
We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
SJ Ryan, A McNally, LR Johnson, EA Mordecai… - Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 2015
SJ Ryan, A McNally, LR Johnson, EA Mordecai… - 1758