Authors
Maria C Carneiro, Gabriela P Ribas, Silvio Hamacher
Publication date
2010/4/7
Journal
Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research
Volume
49
Issue
7
Pages
3286-3294
Publisher
American Chemical Society
Description
This study analyzes the strategic planning of an oil supply chain. To optimize this chain, a two-stage stochastic model with fixed recourse and incorporation of risk management was developed. The model took a scenario-based approach and addressed three sources of uncertainty. To deal with these uncertainties, the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) was adopted as a risk measure, and then the model was applied to the supply chain of six oil refineries. The goal of the study was to maximize the expected net present value, E(NPV), of the supply chain under analysis. The results indicate that the optimization of the several scenarios yielded an E(NPV) variation that reached US$ 36 million. Such a significant difference demonstrates that taking uncertainties into consideration is a fundamental step in decision-making processes.
Total citations
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Scholar articles
MC Carneiro, GP Ribas, S Hamacher - Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, 2010